SEARCH ARTICLE

07 Pages : 64-74

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2020(V-III).07      10.31703/gssr.2020(V-III).07      Published : Sep 2020

Exploring the Presence of Balanced Growth: Empirical Evidence from Denmark

    The aim of present study was to explore existence of long-run association between consumption, income and investment implied by Balanced Growth proposition of Neo-classical-growth-model of the Solow and Swan (1956). Using quarterly data on consumption, income and investment from 1995q1 through 2018q4. The study have tested the balanced growth hypothesis for the Denmark. Using standard Vector-Auto-Regression technique of Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) analysed the output shocks to both consumption and investment. Although, there exists cointegration implying long run relationship, the results are not consistent with the balanced-growth-hypothesis (BGH) with given data sample for Denmark.

    Balanced Growth, Consumption, Investment, Output, cointegration, Time Series, Impulse Response, Variance Decomposition
    (1) Ghulam Yahya Khan
    Assistant Professor, Kashmir Institute of Economics, University of Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Muzaffarabad, Pakistan.
    (2) Muhammad Masood Anwar
    PhD Scholar, Kashmir Institute of Economics, University of Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Muzaffarabad, Pakistan.
    (3) Aftab Anwar
    Assistant Professor, University of Education Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan.

28 Pages : 413-426

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2018(III-IV).28      10.31703/gssr.2018(III-IV).28      Published : Dec 2018

Will the Stock Market Index Upsurge or Deflate? Making Calculated Predictions Using the Univariate Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Technique

    Movements in a stock market index may safely be considered one of the mostwatched out phenomena by investors in almost every economy. One method to forecast the index is to study all those external factors that directly affect it. Another way, however, is to base ones predictions on the past behavior of the variable of interest. This paper has employed the method described latter and has, therefore, made use of the ARIMA modeling. In this connection, the daily stock market index data of the Karachi Stock Exchange 100 index was taken for twenty years from 1997 to 2017 which translated into 4940 observations. The study revealed that the model was decently efficient in forecasting the KSE 100 Index, though only for the short-range. The upshot of this study may be utilized specifically by short term investors in deciding on when, and when not, to invest in the stock market.

    Box-Jenkins Methodology, ARIMA, KSE 100 Index, Prediction, Stationarity, Time Series
    (1) Mustafa Afeef
    Assistant Professor,Department of Management Sciences, Islamia College Peshawar, KP, Pakistan.
    (2) Nazim Ali
    Assistant Professor, Department of Management Studies, University of Malakand, KP, Pakistan.
    (3) Adnan Khan
    Lecturer,Department of Management Studies,University of Malakand, KP, Pakistan.

22 Pages : 215-223

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2021(VI-II).22      10.31703/gssr.2021(VI-II).22      Published : Jun 2021

Concessional Debt and Growth in Services Sector of Pakistan

    The current study aims to explore the relationship between concessional debt and the services sector growth of Pakistan. The annual time series data for the period 1972 to 2019 has been employed. To find out the stationarity and order of integration, the ADF testis utilized. For the long-run relationship, Johansen's co-integration methodology is employed. The empirical results of the study manifest that growth in the services sector is sensitive to concessional debt in the long run. All other explanatory variables also demonstrated a positive and significant effect on services sector growth. VECM method is applied for short-run analysis. The lag of concessional debt is also positive in the short run. A negative and statistically significant lag of error correction term (ECT-1) reasserts the long-run relationship between services sector growth and concessional debt along with other explanatory variables.

    Concessional Debt, Services Sector, Time Series, Pakistan
    (1) Muhammad Abdullah
    Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Sahiwal, Sahiwal, Punjab, Pakistan.
    (2) Ayza Shoukat
    Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of Sahiwal, Sahiwal, Punjab, Pakistan
    (3) Atif Ali Gill
    Lecturer, Department of Business Administration, University of Sahiwal, Sahiwal, Punjab, Pakistan