SEARCH ARTICLE

05 Pages : 42-49

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2020(V-IV).05      10.31703/gssr.2020(V-IV).05      Published : Dec 2020

Inclusive Growth Measurement Under Different Political Regimes of Pakistan

    Existing literature focuses on the determinants and ways to enhance economic growth. This, however, neglects the growth benefit to society. Distribution aspect of economic growth is ignored in the previous decades. As a result, the world cannot enjoy the benefits of economic growth. In this paper inclusive growth index (IGI) is used which is constructed by the Asian Development Bank, 2011 to investigate whether the economic growth in Pakistan creates opportunities for the entire population on an equal basis and how political regimes affect the inclusive growth. Performance of the sixteen indicators of inclusive growth index is assessed over the period of 1978-2014, under two Democratic and two dictators' regimes. The result of the study shows that inclusive growth in Pakistan is low. However, the trend of inclusive growth in Pakistan is positive. Inclusive growth can be increase by increase the pace of economic growth besides democratic culture.

    Inclusive Growth, Economic Growth, Political Economy, Political regimes, Democracy, Dictatorship.
    (1) Muhammad Masood Anwar
    PhD Scholar, Kashmir Institute of Economics, University of Azad Jammu & Kashmir Muzaffarabad, Pakistan.
    (2) Aftab Anwar
    Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of Education, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan.
    (3) Ghulam Yahya Khan
    Assistant Professor, Kashmir Institute of Economics, University of Azad Jammu & Kashmir Muzaffarabad, Pakistan.

43 Pages : 400-409

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2020(V-III).43      10.31703/gssr.2020(V-III).43      Published : Sep 2020

Exploring the Factors Affecting Economic Growth in Pakistan

    Economic growth varies across different countries. Various potential factors have been identified over the years, but finding relevant determinants of growth has been a real issue for empirical investigation. This paper has attempted to examine different macro-economic variables that play a significant role in accelerating economic growth from 1970 to 2019. The econometric results show that human capital, financial development, and industrial production are the encouraging factors of economic growth, while the variable trade openness shows a negative effect on economic growth in Pakistan. Government should design policies to invest inhuman capital and fixed assets; this will create job opportunities for the people and leads to high economic growth.

    Exports, Economic Growth, Human Capital, Investment
    (1) Salyha Zulfiqar Ali Shah
    Assistant Professor, School of Economics, Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan, Punjab, Pakistan.
    (2) Muhammad Muzammil Asghar
    Crop Reporter, Crop Reporting Service, District Multan, Punjab, Pakistan.
    (3) Umber Riaz
    Ph.D. Scholar, Institute of Social and Cultural Studies, Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan, Punjab, Pakistan.

25 Pages : 260-272

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2020(V-II).25      10.31703/gssr.2020(V-II).25      Published : Jun 2020

The Impact of Key Macroeconomic Determinants on Pakistan's Economy

    This paper intended to analyze key Macroeconomic factor’s effect on Pakistan’s economic development. The annual time-series data has been taken from 1980 to 2018 on External Debts, Foreign Direct investment. Consumer Price Index and Term of Trade. Variables stationarity is analyzed by ADF and Ng-Perron tests; afterwards, JJ test and Granger Causality test are used for Long-run (LR) & Short-run(SR) associations between variables, respectively. Also, Residuals Diagnostic Test used for checking residuals assumptions and CUSUM and CUSUMSQ are used for checking parameter constancy. The result shows significantly negative and positive long-run effects of External Debts and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) respectively on the economic growth of Pakistan. Albeit, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Term of Trade (TOT) and, FDI significantly Granger cause economic growth in the short-run. Research suggests that economic policies devised in such a way that deteriorates External Debts and attract foreign investments and strengthen the economic growth of Pakistan in the long-term.

    Johansen’s Co-Integration Method; Granger Causality; External Debt; Economic Growth
    (1) Faaeza Atiq
    University of Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan.
    (2) Mudassir Uddin
    Professor, Department of Statistics, University of Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan.
    (3) Irfan Hussain Khan
    Department of Economics, Government College University Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan.

45 Pages : 349-363

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2019(IV-III).45      10.31703/gssr.2019(IV-III).45      Published : Sep 2019

Estimating Convergence (and Divergence) among Developing, Emerging and Developed Economies

    Economic growth process is explained by many scientists in order to materialize a cherished objective of economic growth across the globe. In the current study, convergence among developed, developing and emerging countries has been estimated. Convergence process was estimated by employing sigma, beta and omega techniques. Analysis was done for three time periods i.e. from 1980 to 2018, from 1980 to 2000 and from 2001 to 2018. Sigma and beta analysis for the period from 1980 to 2000 showed divergence among countries however there are difference among developed, developing and economies Omega analysis showed divergence of developed countries and convergence among developing and emerging countries. Last analysis from 2001 to 2018 showed convergence among countries. The results are consistent with the adoption of information technology. Therefore, fast spillover effects of information technology help the countries in convergence process and make this world a global village.

    Convergence; Divergence; Economic Growth; Information Technology Spillover; Developed; Developing Economies.
    (1) Babar Hussain
    PhD Scholar, Department of Economics,Government College University Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan.
    (2) Muhammad Rizwan Yaseen
    Assistant Professor,Department of Economics, Government College University Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan.
    (3) Sofia Anwar
    Professor,Department of Economics, Government College University Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan.

59 Pages : 476 – 482

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2019(IV-III).59      10.31703/gssr.2019(IV-III).59      Published : Sep 2019

Gwadar Port as the Socioeconomic Pivot to China Pakistan Economic Corridor: Prospects and Repercussions

    China is emerging as an economic power of the world and correspondingly it has unleashed a strategy of its sustained economic growth alongside socioeconomic development of the region and beyond, through implementation of its envisaged grand Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In this regard, Pakistanis accommodating China’s flagship project, China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The success of CPEC hinges on the unhindered development and sustenance of Gwadar Port for assured uninterrupted sea - land linkage of CPEC. Besides supporting CPEC, Gwadar Port has gigantic potential to contribute towards Pakistan’s socioeconomic development and improving socioeconomic stature of landlocked Central Asian States. Geopolitics always play its role in all regional and international developments which embody clash of interest among stakeholder states and development of Gwadar Port is no exception. Alongside enormous prospects of payoffs, Gwadar Port encounters serious challenges to its development and sustenance, which have not been much deliberated in academic discourses. This paper, besides ascertaining the socioeconomic impacts of Gwadar Port on Pakistan, China, regional states and CPEC, identifies international repercussions and domestic challenges to Gwadar Port’s success; thus help the policy makers to draw pertinent conclusions.

    Economic Connectivity, Socioeconomic Growth, Geography, IOR, Traditional Security, Non-Traditional Security
    (1) Sultan Maqsood
    Ph.D Scholar, Area Study Centre, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
    (2) Maliha Zeba Khan
    Ph.D Scholar, School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i- Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
    (3) Sajjad Ali Khan
    Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Abdul Wali Khan University, Mardan, KP, Pakistan.

21 Pages : 158-164

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2019(IV-II).21      10.31703/gssr.2019(IV-II).21      Published : Jun 2019

Role of Energy in Economic Growth of Pakistan (1972-2015)

    This paper highlights the importance of energy in the determination of growth for economy of Pakistan. This study has been taken for the period of 1972-2015. Along with energy consumption some other important variables are also put into investigation. The Johansson co-integration estimation technique has been used to estimate the required impact. The results show that energy consumption contributed positively and significantly to long run economic growth. While the said impact is statistically insignificant in the short run, the study suggested on the basis of results that energy sources should be explored to boost which may possible to satisfy the energy need of the country and to get guaranteed economic growth in the long run. Therefore, Government should pay special attention toward the country’s energy sector to stabilize the economy which assures prosperity in the country.

    Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Johansen CoIntegration and Pakistan.
    (1) Sher Ali
    Assistant Professor,Department of Economics,Islamia College Peshawar, KP, Pakistan.
    (2) Fazle Wahid
    Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Islamia College Peshawar, KP, Pakistan.
    (3) Abid Ali
    Lecturer, Department of Economics, Islamia College Peshawar, KP, Pakistan.

05 Pages : 68-86

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2018(III-IV).05      10.31703/gssr.2018(III-IV).05      Published : Dec 2018

Health, Education and Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from Middle Income Countries

    Health and education are indispensable factors for economic growth. This study examines the role of health and education in economic growth for 76 middle income countries during 1991-2016, using fixed and random effect approaches. The empirical findings demonstrates that a progressive link among life expectancy and economic growth while inverse association exists between infant mortality and economic growth. The outcomes of FE and RE models stated that secondary and tertiary level education contribute to increase in economic growth. The results also shows capital's encouraging impact on growth, while the labor has negative influence to economic growth. The impact of life expectancy, infant mortality, enrollment in secondary and tertiary education on economic growth is stronger in upper middle income countries (UMIC) with comparison to lower middle income countries (LMIC). The study recommended that economies should focus on education and better health facilities towards betterment especially in lower income states.

    Economic Growth, Life Expectancy, Infant Mortality
    (1) Hafiz Muhammad Abubakar Siddique
    PhD Scholar, Federal Urdu University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
    (2) Ghulam Mohey-ud-din
    Urban Economist, The Urban Unit, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan.
    (3) Adiqa Kiani
    Associate Professor, Federal Urdu University, Islamabad, Pakistan.

02 Pages : 18-46

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2017(II-I).02      10.31703/gssr.2017(II-I).02      Published : Jun 2017

Revisiting the Relationship between Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Pakistan

    This study aims to examine relationship of military expenditure and economic growth in different phases of military regimes in the context of Pakistan. This study uses two-state Markov switching models with Constant Transition Probability (CTP) and Time Varying Transition Probabilities (TVTP) for the time period: 1973-2014. This investigation analyses two sorts of relations between military expenditures and economic development through fixed transition probability Markov exchanging models. To begin with, there is negative connection between GDP growth and military expenditures during a high variance state (i.e. having low economic growth). Second, there is positive relation between both variables, during low variance state (i.e. having higher economic growth) which is also supported by idea of Keynesian income multiplier. Another, empirical test of time varying transition probability model was used to capture the switch through indicator variable. Results of the study suggest that chances of switching are increased from low to high economic growth. The chances of switching increase from lower to higher economic growth period (or high variance period) if non-military expenditure increases. The study concludes that military expenditure and economic growth are state dependent. If conditions of economy are stable then increase of expenditure results in positive outcomes, otherwise, it affects negatively. Empirical findings suggest that military spending should be planned in accordance to the economic performance of the country.

    Military expenditure, Economic growth, Markov switching models,Keynesian income multiplier.
    (1) Waqar Qureshi
    PhD Scholar, Department of Economics, AWKUM, Mardan, Pakistan
    (2) Noor Pio Khan
    Pro-Vice Chancellor and Dean, University of Agriculture, Peshawar, Pakistan

09 Pages : 78 - 94

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2022(VII-I).09      10.31703/gssr.2022(VII-I).09      Published : Mar 2022

Growth Environment Score and Economic Growth Nexus in Next Eleven Countries

    This paper investigates the relationship between growth environment score and economic growth of N11 (Next eleven) countries over the period of 20 years that is; 1999-2018. A panel data regression, fixed effect model, random effect model and Hausman test are applied in our study.According to the Hausman specification test, the fixed-effect model is a suitable model for the study. Econometrics findings suggested that macroeconomic stability (external debt), macroeconomic conditions(investment) and human capital (education) have a significant impact on the economic growth of N11 countries. Our empirical findings provide insights on strategies that the countrywide government should enforce to enhance financial boom and improvement throughout the N11 countries.

    Economic Growth, Next Eleven Countries, Growth Environment Score, Panel Regression, Hausman Specification Test
    (1) Anam Tariq
    Scholar, UCP Business School, Faculty of Management Studies, University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan.
    (2) Zahid Ahmed
    Associate Professor, UCP Business School, Faculty of Management Studies, University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan.

38 Pages : 417 -427

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2022(VII-I).38      10.31703/gssr.2022(VII-I).38      Published : Mar 2022

The Mediating Role of Inflation in the Relationship between Currency Depreciation and Economic Growth

    This study investigates the role of inflation as a mediator between currency depreciation and economic growth in Pakistan from 1972 to 2016. Using the Ng-Parron unit root test, the stationarity of the variables is determined. The outcomes of Ng-Parron unit root tests indicate that all variables in the model exhibit mix-order integration. This paper also employs the Autoregressive Distributive Lag Model (ARDL) to evaluate the relationship between currency depreciation, inflation, and economic expansion. The results show very clearly that the inflation rate does not play a role in the link between currency depreciation and economic growth in the case of Pakistan.

    Depreciation, Economic Growth, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL)
    (1) Naveed Ali
    Department of Economics & Development Studies, University of Swat, KP, Pakistan
    (2) Izhar Ul Hassan
    Government of Pakhtunkhwa Planning and Development Department, Peshawar, KP, Pakistan
    (3) Abdul Wahab
    Government Polytechnical Institute, Sardar Garhi, Peshawar, KP, Pakistan.